IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.3	#138
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.2	#246
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.7	#123

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.4	#178

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	14.7%	16.3%	8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.3	13.1	14.0

.500 or above	74.0%	79.2%	54.3%
.500 or above in Conference	77.3%	80.2%	66.3%
Conference Champion	19.1%	21.2%	10.7%
Last Place in Conference	2.4%	1.7%	5.1%

First Four	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
First Round	14.5%	16.1%	8.3%
Second Round	2.2%	2.6%	0.9%
Sweet Sixteen	0.6%	0.7%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Home) - 79.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 3	5 - 5	6 - 9
Quad 4	10 - 3	16 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2019	238	Southern Miss	W	73-64	79%
Nov 12, 2019	25	Auburn	L	69-77	22%
Nov 15, 2019	235	@ Chattanooga	W	72-70	58%
Nov 25, 2019	130	Northeastern	L	70-71	48%
Dec 08, 2019	105	@ Richmond	L	69-75	31%
Dec 17, 2019	352	Alabama A&M	W	77-55	97%
Dec 19, 2019	212	Appalachian St.	W	81-74	74%
Dec 21, 2019	172	Coastal Carolina	W	76-71	67%
Jan 02, 2020	202	@ Louisiana	W	78-77	53%
Jan 04, 2020	223	@ Louisiana Monroe	W	72-70	55%
Jan 06, 2020	135	@ Texas Arlington	L	67-70	38%
Jan 09, 2020	271	Arkansas St.	W	78-68	81%
Jan 11, 2020	220	@ Arkansas Little Rock	W	74-72	55%
Jan 16, 2020	162	Georgia St.	W	76-72	64%
Jan 18, 2020	122	Georgia Southern	W	79-78	54%
Jan 23, 2020	271	@ Arkansas St.	W	75-71	65%
Jan 25, 2020	220	Arkansas Little Rock	W	77-69	73%
Jan 30, 2020	162	@ Georgia St.	L	73-75	44%
Feb 01, 2020	122	@ Georgia Southern	L	76-81	34%
Feb 08, 2020	297	@ Troy	W	74-68	68%
Feb 13, 2020	202	Louisiana	W	81-74	71%
Feb 15, 2020	223	Louisiana Monroe	W	75-67	73%
Feb 20, 2020	212	@ Appalachian St.	W	78-77	54%
Feb 22, 2020	172	@ Coastal Carolina	L	73-74	46%
Feb 29, 2020	297	Troy	W	77-65	84%
Mar 03, 2020	156	Texas St.	W	69-65	62%
Projected Record						16 - 10	12 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	1.2	3.2	4.6	4.5	3.1	1.7	0.5		19.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.4	2.1	4.6	4.5	2.6	0.8	0.2	0.0			15.4	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.5	2.6	5.1	3.8	1.3	0.2	0.0					13.4	3rd
4th										0.0	0.3	2.3	4.4	2.9	0.8	0.1	0.0						10.9	4th
5th									0.0	0.2	2.0	4.1	2.5	0.5	0.0								9.4	5th
6th								0.0	0.2	1.5	3.7	2.2	0.5	0.0	0.0								8.1	6th
7th							0.0	0.1	1.0	2.8	2.2	0.3	0.0										6.5	7th
8th						0.0	0.1	0.8	2.3	1.8	0.4	0.0											5.5	8th
9th					0.0	0.1	0.7	1.8	1.6	0.4	0.0												4.6	9th
10th				0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	1.2	0.3	0.0													3.4	10th
11th			0.0	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.0														2.4	11th
12th	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0															1.4	12th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.0	1.8	2.8	4.1	5.5	6.8	8.6	9.6	10.5	10.9	10.4	9.1	7.4	5.4	3.3	1.7	0.5			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.5		0.5
19-1	99.6%	1.7		1.7	0.0
18-2	95.1%	3.1		2.8	0.3	0.0
17-3	84.0%	4.5		3.4	1.1	0.0
16-4	62.0%	4.6		2.8	1.5	0.3	0.0
15-5	35.2%	3.2		1.3	1.4	0.5	0.0
14-6	11.7%	1.2		0.2	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-7	2.2%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0				0.0			0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	19.1%	19.1		12.7	4.8	1.3	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.5%		72.4%	58.6%	13.8%	8.8			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.1		33.3%
19-1	1.7%		60.8%	52.9%	7.9%	11.2			0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0			0.7		16.8%
18-2	3.3%		53.4%	51.6%	1.7%	12.3							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7	0.6	0.1	0.0		1.5		3.6%
17-3	5.4%		40.1%	39.8%	0.2%	12.9											0.0	0.1	0.6	1.0	0.4	0.1		3.2		0.4%
16-4	7.4%		35.9%	35.8%	0.1%	13.2												0.1	0.5	1.1	0.9	0.1	0.0	4.7		0.2%
15-5	9.1%		25.9%	25.9%		13.8												0.0	0.2	0.8	1.0	0.5	0.0	6.8
14-6	10.4%		19.3%	19.3%		14.1													0.0	0.5	0.8	0.7	0.1	8.4
13-7	10.9%		10.5%	10.5%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.1	9.7
12-8	10.5%		6.2%	6.2%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	9.8
11-9	9.6%		3.0%	3.0%		14.9														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	9.3
10-10	8.6%		2.1%	2.1%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	8.5
9-11	6.8%		1.2%	1.2%		15.4															0.0	0.0	0.0	6.7
8-12	5.5%		0.8%	0.8%		15.7																0.0	0.0	5.4
7-13	4.1%		0.2%	0.2%		15.1																0.0	0.0	4.1
6-14	2.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.8
5-15	1.8%																							1.8
4-16	1.0%																							1.0
3-17	0.6%																							0.6
2-18	0.2%																							0.2
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		14.7%	14.4%	0.3%	13.3			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.7	2.5	4.3	3.9	2.3	0.6	85.3		0.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	5.0		2.0	15.3	20.4	31.6	16.3		14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	95.0%	6.5			5.0		10.0	10.0	70.0